Why the Giants should draft a High Schooler

It is a well known fact that the draft is by no means an exact science.  Someone like Albert Pujols is drafted in the 13th round, while people like Matt Bush are drafted first overall.  Now even though you can never be sure of what you're going to get, you can use information to get a pretty accurate guess.

That being said, with a late to mid 20's pick in the draft that the Giants have, I think it would be best for the organization to draft a high upside, high risk high school prospect, rather than a more pollished, low upside college product.  Look at the farm system now, Joe Panik, our first round pick in 2011 out of college, is about to begin AA, while our supplemental first round pick, Kyle Crick, is only one level behind him, has much more upside, and could very likely end up being a front of the rotation starter.  Now, the obvious reason that Panik was drafted earlier is that people felt he had a better chance to make it to the big leagues.

I recently looked at the drafts from 2000-2008 and looked at the 20th overall pick through the end of the supplemental round, and then compiled two lists; one for high school prospects who became notable MLB players, and college prospects who became successful MLB players:

High school 20th overall-supplemental first round:
Adam Wainwright, Kelly Johnson, Noah Lowry, David Wright, Denard Span, Jeff Francoeur, Matt Cain,
Chad Billingsley, Jarrod Saltalamachia, Adam Jones, Phil Hughes, Colby Rasmus, Rick Porcello, Ben Revere, Travis D'Arnaud(not a big league player yet, but has huge potential.)

College 20th overall-supplemental first round:
Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, Mark Teahen, Chad Cordero, Carlos Quentin, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, joey Devine, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Ian Kennedy, Joba chamberlain, Chris Perez, todd Frazier, JP Arencibia.

The first list has less people but more talent.  The First list has more of the front of the rotation starters, and more of the all star type players.  And lets not forget that THE Mike Trout was drafted in the late first round of his draft.

In the end, it comes down to what the Giants need, and right now, the Giants need more high ceiling guys, and less safe picks.  

International signing idea: Aledmys Diaz has defected

The Giants are known for being active with their international scouting and signings.  When you aren't getting top ten draft picks, this is a wonderful way to keep a farm system stocked with talent.  With that being said, Aledmys Diaz, a 22 year old shortstop from Cuba just defected and became a free agent, I would love to see this guy signed by the Giants.

I haven't been able to see many detailed scouting reports on him, but from what I've heard, he has average speed, or even above average speed, and will be able to hit for both average and power.  He is also said to have a good arm.  I haven't heard much about his defense, but with good speed and a good arm I imagine he can't be too bad but you never know   He will be doing showcases in Mexico soon and has interested many clubs.  The ability to hit for both power and average and play a good shortstop is very rare, and the Giants should jump on this guy.

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, defectors over 23 with less than 3 years of professional play aren't subject to international signing restrictions, so clubs will probably wait until his birthday in January to go after him.  

Offseason discussion: R.A. Dickey

One of the biggest questions of the offseason is what is going to happen with RA Dickey.  Dickey is one of the weirdest trade options in the past few seasons.  He is a 38 year old knuckle baller with incredible control, a great innings eater, and above all won the Cy Young award.  There are a lot of questions surrounding his ability to compete in the coming years given his style and age.   Everyone has been talking about what they think Dickey is worth, but when you really think about it, does it matter what people think he's worth?

Let's be honest, the Mets are not exactly in a rush to trade Dickey.  He is the pure definition of an ace, and Mets fans love to go out and watch him.  Trading Dickey would be a huge sign to New York fans that the Mets don't expect to compete in the next year.  That being said, I thought it was a great job by the Mets to lock up David Wright, giving their fans hope that they will compete soon.  So if the Mets are going to get rid of a player that fans are so excited about, they had better get something equally exciting.

The absolute best course of action for the Mets would be to trade Dickey and get two or three serious pitching prospects to go along with Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.   People may not feel that Dickey is worth that, but if the Mets can't get at least that, there's no reason to trade him.

Torres is back!

First things first, I apologize that I have not posted in the last few days, I have been really busy with college finals.  That should all be over next week though, and I will be back to posting as much as possible.
Now for the news

The Giants have brought Andres Torres back for 2013 on a 1 year 2 million dollar deal, pending a physical.  I personally love this signing as Torres brings a switch hitting compliment to Gregor Blanco, as well as a competitor for the full time left field spot.  He is also very comfortable with many of the main players in the club house.  Beyond that, he is a great late inning defensive replacement, a great speed option off of the bench, a good pinch hit option, and is a very good versatile outfielder.

Andres Torres was huge for the Giants in 2010, providing both speed and power while also playing a great centerfield.  He was also a great, energetic club presence, and knows what it's like to contribute to a winning team.  Now it would be ridiculous to expect that kind of production in 2013, but that's also not what he's being paid for anyway.

This is also a great signing for Torres.  He was clearly comfortable playing with the Giants, and it might be good for him to get back with his old team.

Overall, it is just a great fit for both parties and I can't wait to see him back in a giants uniform in 2012.

Post questions, opinions, and comments below

Around the League: Dodgers sign Ryu Hyun-Jin

The Dodgers have officially signed 25 year old left hander Ryu Hyun-Jin, to a 6 year $36 million contract.  This is a great signing, especially for a franchise that has more money than they know what to do with.  In the KBO, he was a 7 time allstar, 5 time strikeout leader, lead the league in ERA twice, and won the MVP award.  Needless to say he was one of the elite Korean pitchers.  Here's what BR said about him:

He throws a fastball around 90 mph (tops out at 95 mph),a decent curveball,a slider, and a deceptive changeup. Scouts say that the changeup is his best pitch and is a legitimate out-pitch at the big league level. As the team's ace he'd had a heavy workload since his rookie season in teen-age.

He definitely isn't as highly regarded as someone like Yu Darvish, but he is a good talent.  The biggest knock that I have heard about him is that some feel like he is just a reliever.  Even so, $6 million dollars is about what Jeremy Affeldt,  the lefty signed by the Giants who also received $6 million a year.  So even if Hyun Ryu-Jin can't make it as a starter, he can still justify his contract as a durable left handed reliever.  It's a little hard to predict how foreign players will do in their transition to the Major Leagues, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him be able to hang in the starting rotation.  

Overall, a good signing by the Dodgers, who again, do not have many monetary restrictions right now.  Seems like a very low risk signing to me.  And as a team who already has a ton of rotation depth, there won't be too much pressure on him to perform.  Only time will tell.

Giants top 25 prospects list

I make my list like most people, a combination of how likely the prospect is to become an MLB regular, Potential, and how close they are to contributing.  Here's the list:

1. Kyle Crick RHP
2. Chris Stratton RHP
3. Gary Brown RHP
4. Clayton blackburn RHP
5. Joe Panik SS
6. Heath Hembree RHP
7. Martin Agosta RHP
8. Francisco Peguero OF
9. Roger Kieschnick OF
10. Andrew Susac C
11. Chris Heston RHP
12. Mike Kickham LHP
13. Brett Bochy RHP
14. Conor Gillaspie 3B
15. Adam Duvall 3B
16. Ehrie Adrianza SS
17. Mac Williamson OF
18. Gustavo Cabrera OF
19. Edwin Escobar LHP
20. Angel Villalona 1B
21. Ricky Oropesa 1B
22. Shawn Payne OF
23. Shiloh McCall OF
24. Josh Osich LHP
25. Nataniel Javier 3B

You could pretty easily argue a different order.  I am not a huge fan of older prospects like Chris Dominguez, so I didnt even rank him in here, whereas some people might include him in their top ten.  With his arm I'd like to see the Giants convert him to pitching if he doesn't put it together soon   I'm also not a huge fan of top prospects list.  Personally I don't like comparing things like a AAA starter and a Low-A outfielder.  I like looking at prospects by position, which is why I make the Positional Depth Analysis posts.  Feel free to make comments and suggestions.

Great Giants Blogs to Look out for

I have put links to great websites for reference and information on the left of my website.  I also included my 3 favorite giants blogs, being Obsessive Giants Compulsive, When the Giants Come to town, and The Giants Baseball Blog.  They all have different focuses and I would strongly recommend reading all of them.