According to MLBtraderumors, the Phillies seem to be pushing hard for Pagan, while the Giants seem to be short on average annual value. Pagan will likely go to the team that wants him the most and that seems to be the Phillies at this point. I wouldn't be shocked to hear Pagan sign somewhere at the winter meetings next week.
If the Giants don't succeed in signing Pagan, I would say the most realistic options on the free agent market are Shane Victorino, Ichiro Suzuki, and Nick swisher. Nick Swisher and Shane Victorino seem to have plenty of possible suitors so they may be a little more difficult. Ichiro's agent said today that they are open to talking to other clubs now and that the talks with the Yankees have stalled.