Tuesday, December 4, 2012

The Brian Wilson Situation

Something that has been on the back of everyone's minds lately is the issue of Brian Wilson, mostly because a lot of Giants fans have realized that even without him as the Giants closer the whole season, they were still able to win the world series, and a lot of people are more concerned with Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro.  Even so, a lot of Giant fans would be disappointed to see him playing for a different team.

A few weeks ago, when people started discussing the fact that Brian Wilson would be a non-tender candidate for the Giants, he openly discussed his frustration with the decision, saying that if the Giants were not going to resign him, he would likely want to go to the Dodgers or Angels because he lives there in the offseason.  This obviously got some attention from Giants fans, because as bad as it would be to see Brian Wilson on another team, it would hurt twice as much to see him in Dodger blue.  It was looking more and more like the Giants were going to have to move on from one of the most recognizable faces in the game of baseball.  Now, this also might have been a try at getting the Giants more interested, but we could never know if that is true or not.

Earlier this week, however, the both the Dodgers and the Angels said that they wouldn't have interest in him, which is a big blow to a once dominant closer, considering how much the Dodgers are spending, and the fact that the Angels said that they are attempting to get some bullpen help at the moment.

At this point, I would say the Giants are his best options at this point.  He is loved at atnt park, and he knows the organization well.

Another thing that helped the Giants were the two recent signings of people that are similar to Brian Wilson.  Both are coming off years where they did not pitch and had tommy john surgery.  lets take a look at the slightly less comparable option, being Ryan Madson.

Ryan Madson was a very good relief pitcher for the Phillies before signing a one year contract with the Reds to be their closer.  Unfortunately, in spring training it was reported that Madson was having arm troubles and would need to have his first TJ surgery, and miss the entire season.   Madson recently signed a one year contract with the Angels worth $3.25 million, that could add an additional $3.5 million based on the number of days that he is on the roster and the number of games finished.  Now he is definitely different than Wilson. He was not nearly as dominant as Wilson was, but Wilson is also on his second TJ surgery, which is where the success rate drops of dramatically, from around 90% to 60%.  That being said I would love for Wilson to get a contract similar to this from the Giants.  It gives him a possibility to earn quite a bit of money, while also allowing him to have some security if his recovery not being successful.  This signing definitely gave the Giants some leverage in signing him to a more realistic contract.  Now the deal that Wilson is probably loving.

Joakim Soria, an absolutely dominant pitcher from 2007-2010, before dropping off slightly in 2011 and then receiving his second TJ in two years in 2012 sounds an awful lot like Brian Wilson, doesn't it?  They are in alarmingly similar situations, with the only difference being that Soria is slightly younger.  Unfortunately for the Giants, Soria just received a two year deal from the Rangers, reportedly worth around $8 million over the life of the contract, with a club option.

This deal isn't actually ALL bad.  It firmly establishes the AAV for someone like him at around $3-4 million per season.  Not only that, but I don't think he would want a two year deal anyway.  He would probably want a one year deal to reestablish his value.  So hopefully these signings help

The ideal contract I see with Wilson is a one year pact at around $3.5 million with incentives that could raise it to around $7 million and either a club or vesting option for 2014.  That would enable to keep Wilson for two years , if healthy, or just drop him of he's not.

We shall see what happens

No comments:

Post a Comment