Saturday, December 1, 2012


I personally don't see Pagan returning as a Giant next season.  Brian Sabean has been much more reluctant to over pay players these past few seasons, and that is exactly what it would take to sign Pagan.  It was reported recently that the giants extended Pagan a four year offer, and if he doesn't accept that I don't see the Giants offering him much more than that.  He will turn 32 next season, and both his defense and offense depend a lot on his speed.  His main defensive asset is his ability to run down balls, and is really dependent on his speed to run out ground balls in the infield and to steal bases.  Not only that but the Giants have a great centerfield option on the roster in Gregor Blanco.  Lets look at the comparisons

Gregor Blanco: 453 PA, 26 SB, 6 CS, .244 BA, .333 OBP, .344 SLG

Angel Pagan: 659 PA, 29 SB, 7 CS, .288 BA, .338 OBP, .440 SLG

Now there are clearly advantages to having Pagan, mainly his batting average, slugging percentage, and ability to drive in runs, but there are also advantages to Blanco.  Gregor Blanco stole only 3 less bases than pagan in over 200 less plate appearances, had nearly an identical OBP and had an extremely CS numbers.  Now I get that the leadoff hitter will be needed to drive in runs now and again, but OBP and and ability to steal bases is much more important at the top spot in the lineup.  Gregor Blanco is also an elite defender.  Don't get me wrong, Pagan is a better option, but there are 
  1. Gregor Blanco will only make around $1.3 million next season, and will only be a one year commitment, while Angel Pagan could need up to $10 million per season for the next few seasons.  I'm not sure I would pay the extra money and extra years just for a few more RBI's and a higher slugging percentage
  2. Gregor Blanco, with only a one year investment, will leave the door open to putting giants's top prospect Gary Brown to come in and take over soon,  while Pagan on a multi-year deal would possibly block Gary Brown's path to the big leagues.
  3. Giants will soon have to pay players like Buster Posey more money, and you don't want lengthy, expensive contracts stopping the Giants from extending him long-term.
  4. Gregor Blanco could also provide a nice platoon with Gary Brown.  At AA last season, Gary brown played great centerfield while also having a .321 BA, .402 OBP, and .479 SLG against left handed pitching.  Obviously his numbers will probably dip when he gets to the major leagues, but its about time he gets an opportunity to play for the Giants and show what he's got
I just don't see the Angel Pagan deal to be worth the cost.  The Giants could also use the saved money to resign Scutaro and try and get a left fielder.  

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